Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Decline Over a Third In the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Official Figures

The mean number of everyday killings each month in the country has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per fresh official figures. Nevertheless, public safety experts have cautioned that murder data may not signal improved national safety.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Numbers

There was an average of close to 55 killings a day in the month of November compared with roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in September of last year. This data was shared by the head of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that we have seen over these months is very significant,” the President stated, noting that last month the smallest figure of murders were recorded for any November in the past decade.

Recent Background and Government Plan

Violent organized crime rivalries, combined with the government’s heavily military campaigns to take on the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate soar in recent years. The rate hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than four times greater than the United States. However, killings have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has linked her public safety plan for an seemingly sharper reduction in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state stated: “We have a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The main elements of the President's security plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Enhanced collaboration between government agencies.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

However, public safety researchers cautioned that using murder data to paint a picture of pacification was misleading. This is notably true given the rise in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“This would be excellent news if this was a reduction, but I think we must not just look at the homicide data and think: ‘Well then, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

Per the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the identical period last year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain states have risen by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not useful for estimating the context of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the desire to accurately identify and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that using monthly means of everyday killings was similarly an issue because it could obscure periods when there were especially elevated numbers of murders.

“Relying on the daily average renders high peaks of violence unseen,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can point to the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, per government figures. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s highly politically advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

Yet despite these measures, Mexico continues to be plagued by high bloodshed, with several states in the throes of cartel-driven conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of young people protested in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a way to create a narrative of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, socially it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas concluded.