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For a brief period, the former US president seemed to embrace a strong stance on Ukraine. Following making warnings of "severe ramifications" last August in case Russia's president continued blocking peace talks, Trump ultimately introduced substantial sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision seriously hindered Putin's capability to support his aggression in the region.

But, with his recently unveiled comprehensive peace plan for Ukraine, which was drafted by both nations' representatives lacking Ukraine's or EU input, he has seemingly gone back to his pro-Putin position.

Rewarding Aggression

The former president's proposal would in practice benefit the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's political freedom in peril. Despite bold statements that "The nation's sovereignty will be upheld", large portions of the proposal actually undermine that essential sovereignty. Seen as a Kremlin dream would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his corporate background, Trump persists to consider the war as a basic territorial dispute, as if handing Putin a section of Ukraine's land will appease the leader. But, Russia's war is not merely about controlling a charred region of deindustrialized territory in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's clear goal to destroy it so it no longer serves as an enticing standard for the Russia's population of the accountable leadership that his increasing dictatorship withholds them.

Territorial Concessions

While keeping in position the currently separated Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the plan would compel the nation to give up the whole Donetsk region. Aside from favoring Russia with area that its military have been unable to seize in exceeding a lengthy period of conflict, this surrender would render Ukraine's military defenses dangerously undermined.

Donetsk is the place of Ukraine's well-known "fortress belt", the fortified defensive positions that are a key barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine abandon these fortifications, providing Russian forces a clear route to the capital in case he eventually opt to restart the war.

Defense Reductions

Additionally, in a action that would facilitate additional fighting easier for the Russian military, Trump would require Ukraine to reduce the scale of its troops from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a limit of this lower number. Notably, Trump's proposal sets no such limits on Russian forces.

Apparently as a concession to Russia's campaign to characterize the nation's democratically elected administration as extremists, the plan asserts: "Any extremist ideology and practices must be condemned and prohibited." Apparently to highlight this point, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump imposes no condition that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by allowing votes in his own country.

Defense Commitments

Certainly, the initiative includes Russia commit not to "enter other states" and to "establish in regulation its position of non-violence towards European nations and Ukraine". But taking into account that Putin has breached similar treaties in the previous instances – such as the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government pledged to respect the nation's borders in return for relinquishing its historical nuclear arsenal, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia promised to a truce and a handback of occupied land in the Donbas to the government – why should the international community have confidence in Russia now?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on international defense commitments. While the proposal threatens a "strong coordinated military response" should the Russian Federation renew its aggression, and includes that "Ukraine will receive reliable defense commitments", the details include fuzzy to alarming. The plan would not only block Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude alliance nations from deploying military personnel on the nation's land, thus blocking the reassurance force, reportedly headed by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to stop Putin from rebuilding his reduced forces, restocking, and resuming aggression.

World Concern

An additional parallel deal apparently would grant Ukraine with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any later "significant, intentional, and sustained armed attack" by the Russian Federation on the country "would be considered as an assault endangering the tranquility of the transatlantic community." This implies a defense action. However unlike a capable Ukrainian military – Ukraine's best defense against renewed Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would hinge on the commitment of Western powers, like Trump, to respond militarily to Russia's attacks, a response they have {not