Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Return
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Major Barriers in the Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to head off any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
